That was NOT Funny: The Worst April Fools Day Joke

So, yesterday I read this article that turned out to be an April Fools Day joke and I think I've been angry ever since. You know you're an English major when someone plays an April Fools Day trick on you by telling you that a book is going to be released early.

Public service announcement to the universe: that was NOT funny!

In case you didn't read this article, it basically said that The Winds of Winter (the next installment in the Song of Ice and Fire series) was going to be released at the end of this season of the TV show. Let me say that again: someone thought it would be funny to post  an article saying that the book everyone has been waiting for for three years was going to be published in two months. That person, was clearly not in touch with reality. For those of you who don't read A Song of Ice and Fire, suffice it to say that this book is a big deal. Like, there are people who started reading this series in the 90s and have been patiently waiting for it to conclude for almost two decades. Don't make fun of their pain.

Now, I should have known that was too good to be true, but the way the article was worded tricked me. The title was 'George R.R. Martin Announces Release Date'. That's pretty innocuous given that usually when an author announces a release date it's like a year or two away. So, when I saw the title I was like 'eh, that just means its coming out in 2015 or something'. But then I actually started to read the article and I was flabbergasted. When I read that the book was coming out in two months, I basically had a heart attack and I was half way to Amazon to pre-order the book before I stopped to think and realized it was a trick.

Then I just got angry and started glaring at random people.

However, this whole incident does raise the all important question: When is this book actually coming out?

Now, as a writer myself, I understand that you cannot rush greatness and I don't want to undermine Martin's creative process (because, whatever he's been doing has clearly been working for him thus far), but this book really should be done by now. I estimate that someone who's diligently writing every day from 9 to 5, can finish about 5 pages a day. That may seem like a low estimate to some people, but writing is slow going, and 'finishing' a page also includes editing and fact-checking (like when you can't remember what color eyes your character is supposed to have or something like that). That may even be a high page estimate for some people. However, based on my calculations, you would only need to write 3 pages a day to write a 1000 page book in a year. Now, of course, one doesn't always write every day of the year, an that's okay. So, let's assume that for it takes you somewhere between a year and a two years to finish writing a 1000 page book.

Next, you have to edit the book. That process is actually much faster than writing the book (unless you decide half way through that everything you wrote is crap and you have to start over - that happens sometimes), so let's allow a year for editing. That means that, reasonably speaking, this book should be done right about now (since the last book, A Dance with Dragons, was published in 2011). That's not even factoring in the extra writing time between when Martin actually finished A Dance with Dragons and when it was actually published. Once a book is done, a publishing company typically doesn't have much incentive to hold off on publishing it, so let's just say that the book would be in stores six to eight months after all the editing and such is done. Typically you want to announce a publication date for a book about six months ahead of time so that the author can do book tours and talk shows and other publicity stuff like that. Which means that, if The Winds of Winter is done, the publishers should be announcing it right now, and it should be in stores by the end of the year.

Of course, as far as I can tell, the book is not even completely written yet. I know Martin says "when's its finished, its finished", but taking three years to write 1000 pages is a little ridiculous. With that time frame, you would have about two days to write every page. Obviously, I want The Winds of Winter to be good and well written, but I think at this point its not unfair to say that Martin needs to write faster. Again, I understand that writing is difficult, but it's not like he's inventing all the characters and back story from scratch.

Long story short, the earliest we could see The Winds of Winter is 2015 and we shouldn't start expecting it until 2016.

Just sayin'

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